The BBC is running a background/forecast piece about podcasting replacing radio. It's a popular angle; I've made noises like that myself. But the comparison of podcasting to radio is too simplistic, and the forecast is probably too focused on content over distribution. Quality issues aside, podcasting cannot replace radio in its current distribution method; radio is just too easy to turn on and its installed base is too ubiquitous. Of course, the music-licensing issue is important, too—if podcasting is to supplant radio it will supplant talk radio.

I'm thinking that podcasting and radio are each too distinct for the former to destroy the latter. But it's not hard to suppose that podcasting has already fragmented the listening market, and will drive an even bigger wedge as time goes on. Radio will have to press its advantages and synergize (as many producers, stations, and personalities are already doing) with podcast technology. As disruptive technologies go, podcasting seems relatively benign, unlike MP3 and other compressed file formats which could feasibly eradicate CDs.